Modeling trends in overweight and obesity amongst children and youths in England

Research Question
What are the current trends in child obesity in England and how will they impact on the future burden of disease and health costs in England from 2011-2050.

Modeling Approach
NHF has developed a sophisticated solution to modelling the burden of disease and attributable costs associated with Obesity. The team has a model of measuring the attributable burden of disease and attendant costs that have been validated in a number of settings at both a national and local level. Two computer programs, one to model future health trends and another micro simulation has been developed and run on any personal computer. The micro simulation incorporates a sophisticated economic module. It employs Markov-type simulation estimations of long-term health benefits, health care costs and the cost-effectiveness of specified interventions. It synthesises and estimates evidence on cost-effectiveness analysis and cost-utility analysis in countries. The model is used to project the differences in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and disability adjusted life years (DALYs), lifetime health-care costs and as a consequence of interventions incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICER) and disability adjusted life expectancy (DALE). Sensitivity analysis is also done within this model. Outputs are discounted for any specific discount rate.

Principal Investigator

Klim McPherson, PhD MA
University of Oxford & National Heart Forum


Martin Brown, PhD
National Heart Forum

Tim Marsh, PhD
National Heart Forum

Ketevan Rtveladze, MsC
National Heart Forum